@article{Barrell1992,
  title = {The {{Turn}} to the {{Masses}}: {{The African National Congress}}' {{Strategic Review}} of 1978-79},
  author = {Barrell, Howard},
  date = {1992},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Southern African Studies},
  volume = {18},
  number = {1},
  pages = {64--92},
  publisher = {Taylor & Francis, Ltd.},
  doi = {10.2307/2637182},
  url = {http://www.jstor.org/stable/2637182},
  abstract = {In 1978-79 the ANC leadership undertook a formal review of its revolutionary strategy. The changes that resulted had an influence beyond the ANC; they came to affect the direction taken by a wide range of anti-apartheid forces in the 1980s, including the United Democratic Front. This paper recovers the story of this review, hitherto a largely hidden chapter in ANC history. It critically examines the review and, briefly, argues the extent and limitations of its influence and importance. The strategic review advised the ANC to give more emphasis to political organisation by political means in its strategy. The intention behind this was to construct an organised revolutionary political base for the ANC inside South Africa. The review identified a political base as a prerequisite for a decisive and forcible ANC contention for state power at some stage in the future. It argued that the best way to build such a political base was for the ANC to become involved actively in the development of a broad popular political front of organisations operating legally and semi-legally inside South Africa. Earlier ANC concentration on armed activity had manifestly failed to develop such a political base. It is argued that, after 1981, ANC strategic formulations and practice consistently viewed political organisation as subject to over-riding military imperatives. The strategic review did not fundamentally challenge this military emphasis. It still saw the political mobilisation advocated by the review as serving what was to be basically an armed assault on the state. It is argued, further, that the ANC never succeeded in integrating the political base it created for itself in the 1980s with its armed struggle, and reasons are suggested for this. But, when ANC armed activity was clearly foundering in the late 1980s, this political base enabled the ANC comfortably to shift strategic primacy decisively to political Imperatives and activity. That was the review's major achievement.},
  keywords = {Armed struggle,Executive committees,Guerrilla warfare,Military bases,Military operations,Military strategy,Political mobilization,Political power,Political revolutions,Warfare}
}

@article{Cederman2007,
  title = {Beyond {{Fractionalization}}: {{Mapping Ethnicity}} onto {{Nationalist Insurgencies}}},
  author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Girardin, Luc},
  date = {2007-02},
  journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
  volume = {101},
  number = {01},
  pages = {173},
  issn = {0003-0554},
  doi = {10.1017/S0003055407070086},
  url = {http://www.journals.cambridge.org/abstract{_}S0003055407070086}
}

@article{Cederman2010,
  title = {Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? {{New}} Data and Analysis},
  author = {Cederman, Lars-Erik and Wimmer, Andreas and Min, Brian},
  date = {2010},
  journaltitle = {World Politics},
  volume = {62},
  number = {1},
  pages = {87--119},
  publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
  url = {http://muse.jhu.edu/journals/wp/summary/v062/62.1.cederman.html papers3://publication/uuid/A0AB167F-5E56-4C03-88B1-2953C0826215},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/SQ7Y5S89/Cederman et al. - 2010 - Why do ethnic groups rebel New data and analysis.pdf}
}

@book{Chenoweth2011,
  title = {Why {{Civil Resistance Works}}: {{The Strategic Logic}} of {{Nonviolent Conflict}}},
  author = {Chenoweth, Erica and Stephan, Maria J.},
  date = {2011},
  publisher = {Columbia University Press},
  location = {New York},
  abstract = {For more than a century, from 1900 to 2006, campaigns of nonviolent resistance were more than twice as effective as their violent counterparts in achieving their stated goals. By attracting impressive support from citizens, whose activism takes the form of protests, ...},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/68MWMDRE/Chenoweth and Stephan - 2011 - Why Civil Resistance Works The Strategic Logic of.pdf}
}

@article{Chenoweth2013,
  title = {Unpacking {{Nonviolent Campaigns}}: {{Introducing}} the {{NAVCO}} 2.0 {{Dataset}}},
  author = {Chenoweth, Erica and Lewis, Orion A.},
  date = {2013},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  volume = {50},
  number = {3},
  pages = {415--423},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications},
  url = {http://jpr.sagepub.com/content/50/3/415.short papers3://publication/uuid/85B42BB6-596C-4D88-961B-53559C682AD6},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/YGT5M7G4/Chenoweth and Lewis - 2013 - Unpacking Nonviolent Campaigns Introducing the NA.pdf}
}

@article{Chenoweth2022,
  title = {Updating Nonviolent Campaigns: {{Introducing NAVCO}} 2.1},
  shorttitle = {Updating Nonviolent Campaigns},
  author = {Chenoweth, Erica and Shay, Christopher Wiley},
  date = {2022-11-01},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  volume = {59},
  number = {6},
  pages = {876--889},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications Ltd},
  issn = {0022-3433},
  doi = {10.1177/00223433221092938},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221092938},
  urldate = {2023-03-22},
  abstract = {In this article, we introduce an updated version of the Nonviolent and Violent Campaigns and Outcomes dataset (NAVCO 2.1), which compiles annual data on 389 nonviolent and violent mass movements for regime change, anti-occupation, and secession from 1945 to 2013. This version of the dataset corrects known coding errors in NAVCO 2.0, adds news cases (including the Arab uprisings), and codes attributes for each campaign year (such as participation size and diversity, the behavior of regime elites, repression and its effects, support from external actors, and campaign outcomes). In addition, NAVCO 2.1 adds several new attributes to each campaign-year, including more precise participation figures, more nuanced data about the scope, intensity, and degree of violent flank behavior and state repression, and further information about the parallel or alternative institutions developed by the campaign. The data reveal four key findings: (1) that the success rate of nonviolent resistance campaigns has declined since 2001; (2) that far more people have participated in nonviolent than violent campaigns in the postwar period; (3) that nonviolent campaigns suffer far fewer per-capita fatalities than armed campaigns; and (4) that incidental violence by dissidents has become a more common feature of contemporary nonviolent campaigns compared with earlier cases. The article concludes with suggestions for further research.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/CKA3LN7W/Chenoweth and Shay - 2022 - Updating nonviolent campaigns Introducing NAVCO 2.pdf}
}

@book{CobbJr.2015,
  title = {This {{Nonviolent Stuff}}'ll {{Get You Killed}}: {{How Guns Made}} the {{Civil Rights Movement Possible}}},
  shorttitle = {This {{Nonviolent Stuff}}'ll {{Get You Killed}}},
  author = {Cobb Jr., Charles E.},
  date = {2015-12-04},
  publisher = {Duke University Press Books},
  abstract = {Visiting Martin Luther King Jr. during the Montgomery, Alabama, bus boycott, journalist William Worthy almost sat on a loaded pistol. "Just for self-defense," King assured him. It was not the only weapon King kept for such a purpose; one of his advisors remembered the reverend’s Montgomery, Alabama, home as "an arsenal." Like King, many ostensibly "nonviolent" civil rights activists embraced their constitutional right to self-protection—yet this crucial dimension of the Afro-American freedom struggle has been long ignored by history. In This Nonviolent Stuff’ll Get You Killed, Charles E. Cobb Jr. recovers this history, describing the vital role that armed self-defense has played in the survival and liberation of black communities. ~Drawing on his experiences in the civil rights movement and giving voice to its participants, Cobb lays bare the paradoxical relationship between the nonviolent civil rights struggle and the long history and importance of African Americans taking up arms to defend themselves against white supremacist violence.},
  isbn = {978-0-8223-6123-7},
  langid = {english},
  pagetotal = {328}
}

@article{Cunningham2023,
  title = {Choosing Tactics: {{The}} Efficacy of Violence and Nonviolence in Self-Determination Disputes},
  shorttitle = {Choosing Tactics},
  author = {Cunningham, Kathleen Gallagher},
  date = {2023-01-01},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  volume = {60},
  number = {1},
  pages = {124--140},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications Ltd},
  issn = {0022-3433},
  doi = {10.1177/00223433221145961},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221145961},
  urldate = {2025-03-18},
  abstract = {Disputes over self-determination (SD) have led to many civil wars, and a primary alternative, nonviolent campaign, is rarely successful in this context. Yet, while secession is rare, these movements often achieve more limited successes in the form of concessions from the state. This article provides a new assessment of the efficacy of different tactics ? violent, nonviolent and conventional political action. It advances an argument that nonviolent tactics can help SD movements to generate indirect pressure on states that contributes to movement success, including greater autonomy. Nonviolence is used to garner attention from international actors using a human rights frame for their cause. International actors that are receptive to these human rights narratives then incentivize concessions for the SD movements and dis-incentivize repression. This happens through a variety of means, such as public shaming of the host state and withholding inter-governmental organization membership. Statistical analysis of violent and nonviolent tactics in SD movements shows that nonviolence can be effective in successfully obtaining concessions. Movements that use nonviolence are twice as likely to see concessions in any given year compared to those that just make demands but do not use nonviolence or violence. The effect of nonviolence is slightly larger than that of violence, which is also associated an increased chance of concession.},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/RKNIJIYL/Cunningham - 2023 - Choosing tactics The efficacy of violence and nonviolence in self-determination disputes.pdf}
}

@article{Dahlum2023,
  title = {Joining Forces: {{Social}} Coalitions and Democratic Revolutions},
  shorttitle = {Joining Forces},
  author = {Dahlum, Sirianne},
  date = {2023-02-07},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  shortjournal = {Journal of Peace Research},
  pages = {002234332211386},
  issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
  doi = {10.1177/00223433221138614},
  url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/00223433221138614},
  urldate = {2023-02-22},
  abstract = {When are mass protest movements able to overthrow authoritarian regimes and promote democratic transitions? This article considers whether socially diverse protest movements are more conducive to democratization than movements restricted to one or a few social groups. Coalitions across social groups should impose higher costs on authoritarian regimes through access to a wide range of resources, strategies and sources of leverage. Heterogenous protest coalitions are also more likely to socially overlap with regime supporters and the security forces, which should encourage regime splits and defections. But, diverse protest movements may also be more vulnerable to fragmentation and in-fighting, which may particularly threaten prospects of democracy in the aftermath of an authoritarian regime breakdown. Analyzing new global data mapping the social group composition of anti-regime protest campaigns from 1900 to 2013, the article finds consistent evidence that socially diverse protest movements are more likely to overthrow authoritarian regimes, and this is not driven by protest size. Socially diverse movements are also more likely to end in the short- and long-run establishment of more democratic institutions, suggesting that heterogenous protest movements’ potential for bringing about democracy is more promising than expected. These findings speak to the importance of securing broad and not only large mass movements to promote democracy.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/IXN5LV7V/Dahlum - 2023 - Joining forces Social coalitions and democratic r.pdf}
}

@article{deRouen2004,
  title = {The {{Dynamics}} of {{Civil War Duration}} and {{Outcome}}},
  author = {family=Rouen, given=Karl R., prefix=de, useprefix=true and Sobek, David},
  date = {2004-05},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  shortjournal = {Journal of Peace Research},
  volume = {41},
  number = {3},
  pages = {303--320},
  issn = {0022-3433, 1460-3578},
  doi = {10.1177/0022343304043771},
  url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022343304043771},
  urldate = {2021-04-05},
  abstract = {Civil wars have several outcomes: government victory, rebel victory, truce, or treaty. This analysis models state capacity as a theoretical starting point to underpin hypotheses on duration and outcome. To test these hypotheses, multinomial logit and competing risk survival analysis are utilized. These methods allow for the examination of each outcome and its respective duration dynamics. Logit tells us what shapes the probability of each outcome, and hazard analysis identifies the factors that determine the time to each outcome. The models examine the years 1944 to 1997 and find that state capacity is involved in outcome and duration in at least two important ways. An effective state bureaucracy undermines the rebels, but a strong government army does not necessarily enhance the government cause. UN intervention decreases the probability of both government and rebel victory, while increasing the likelihood of a treaty or truce. In addition, rebels have a decreased probability of winning ethnic wars. Forest cover hinders rebels and treaties, while mountain cover tends to help rebels. African wars are harder for governments to win. African wars and ethnic wars are longer.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/J7KCVL8X/de Rouen and Sobek - 2004 - The Dynamics of Civil War Duration and Outcome.pdf}
}

@article{Dixon2013,
  title = {Allies, {{Targets}}, and the {{Effectiveness}} of {{Coalition Protest}}: {{A Comparative Analysis}} of {{Labor Unrest}} in the {{US South}}},
  author = {Dixon, Marc and Danaher, William and Kail, Ben},
  date = {2013},
  journaltitle = {Mobilization: An International Quarterly},
  volume = {18},
  number = {3},
  pages = {331--350}
}

@article{Gawerc2020,
  title = {Diverse {{Social Coalitions}}: {{Prospects}} and {{Challenges}}},
  author = {Gawerc, Michelle I.},
  date = {2020},
  journaltitle = {Sociology Compass}
}

@book{Gelderloos2007,
  title = {How Nonviolence Protects the State},
  author = {Gelderloos, Peter},
  date = {2007-05},
  publisher = {South End Press},
  url = {http://books.google.com/books?id=WXHYAAAAIAAJ},
  abstract = {Since the civil rights era, the doctrine of nonviolence has enjoyed near-universal acceptance by the US Left. Today protest is often shaped by cooperation with state authorities--even organizers of rallies against police brutality apply for police permits, and anti-imperialists usually stop short of supporting self-defense and armed resistance. "How Nonviolence Protects the State" challenges the belief that nonviolence is the only way to fight for a better world. In a call bound to stir controversy and lively debate, Peter Gelderloos invites activists to consider diverse tactics, passionately arguing that exclusive nonviolence often acts to reinforce the same structures of oppression that activists seek to overthrow. Contemporary movements for social change face plenty of difficult questions, but sometimes matters of strategy and tactics receive low priority. Many North American activists fail to scrutinize the role of nonviolence, never posing essential questions: - Is nonviolence effective at ending systems of oppression? - Does nonviolence intersect with white privilege and the dominance of North over South? - How does pacifism reinforce the same power dynamic as patriarchy? - Ultimately, does nonviolence protect the state? Peter Gelderloos is a radical community organizer. He is the author of "Consensus: A New Handbook for Grassroots Political, Social, and Environmental Groups" and a contributor to "Letters From Young Activists." He is the co-facilitator of a workshop on the prison system, and is also involved in independent media, copwatching, anti-oppression work, and anarchist organizing.},
  isbn = {978-0-89608-772-9},
  langid = {english},
  mendeley-tags = {Education / Multicultural Education,Nonviolence,Pacifism,Political Science / History & Theory,Political Science / Peace,Political Science / Political Ideologies / General},
  pagetotal = {196},
  keywords = {Education / Multicultural Education,Nonviolence,Pacifism,Political Science / History \& Theory,Political Science / Peace,Political Science / Political Ideologies / General}
}

@article{Gleditsch2022,
  title = {Going, Going, Gone? {{Varieties}} of Dissent and Leader Exit},
  shorttitle = {Going, Going, Gone?},
  author = {Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede and Olar, Roman-Gabriel and Radean, Marius},
  date = {2022-10-18},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  pages = {00223433221092813},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications Ltd},
  issn = {0022-3433},
  doi = {10.1177/00223433221092813},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221092813},
  urldate = {2023-03-27},
  abstract = {We examine how popular dissent affects the likelihood that political leaders lose power, distinguishing between types of dissent in terms of nonviolent/violent primary tactics as well as the level of individual participation. We posit that protests threaten leaders both directly through the governance costs of citizen non-compliance, and indirectly through the increased risk of elite defections in the ruling coalition. In a series of propositions we detail how the type of dissent and the magnitude of participation influence the odds of leaders surviving in office. We argue that mass nonviolent challenges tend to be more threatening to a leader?s rule than violent dissent, given the characteristics of movements likely to choose nonviolent tactics. Moreover, the effectiveness of the challenge increases in the scale and size of the dissident campaign, and movements that can mobilize larger numbers have a comparative advantage in nonviolent tactics. Employing data on political leaders? tenure and dissident campaign characteristics, we provide evidence consistent with our expectations.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/DTJSGUVI/Gleditsch et al. - 2022 - Going, going, gone Varieties of dissent and leade.pdf}
}

@article{Gubler2012,
  title = {Horizontal {{Inequality}}, {{Crosscutting Cleavages}}, and {{Civil War}}},
  author = {Gubler, Joshua R. and Selway, Joel Sawat},
  date = {2012},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  volume = {56},
  number = {2},
  pages = {206--232},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications},
  issn = {0022-0027},
  doi = {10.1177/0022002711431416},
  url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/0022002711431416},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/K89WVKB2/Gubler and Selway - 2012 - Horizontal Inequality, Crosscutting Cleavages, and.pdf}
}

@article{Jackson2020,
  entrysubtype = {magazine},
  title = {The {{Impotence}} of {{Nonviolence}}: {{Understanding}} the {{Utility}} of {{Force}} in the {{Black Lives Matter Movement}}},
  shorttitle = {{{OAH}} | {{The Impotence}} of {{Nonviolence}}},
  author = {Jackson, Kellie},
  date = {2020-09},
  journaltitle = {The American Historian},
  volume = {25},
  pages = {12--16},
  url = {https://www.oah.org/tah/history-for-black-lives/the-impotence-of-nonviolence-understanding-the-utility-of-force-in-the-black-lives-matter-movement/},
  urldate = {2024-07-17},
  langid = {american},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/9SJLW6JF/the-impotence-of-nonviolence-understanding-the-utility-of-force-in-the-black-lives-matter-movem.html}
}

@online{Lakey2011,
  title = {Global {{Nonviolent Action Database}}},
  author = {Lakey, George},
  date = {2011},
  url = {http://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/},
  urldate = {2019-02-18},
  abstract = {The Global Nonviolent Action Database is a growing repository of case studies on nonviolent action around the globe. Compiled by student researchers at Swarthmore College, with additional cases contributed by students at Tufts University and Georgetown University, the GNAD covers nonviolent campaigns in over 200 countries worldwide, from 1170 BCE to the present day. The GNAD can be searched or browsed by date, country, "wave" of campaigns, methods of nonviolent action, and more, and each case study includes details about the campaign's goals, participants, opponents, and success.},
  langid = {english},
  annotation = {http://nvdatabase.swarthmore.edu/}
}

@incollection{MacLeod2015,
  title = {From the {{Mountains}} and {{Jungles}} to the {{Villages}} and {{Streets}}: {{Transitions}} from {{Violent}} to {{Nonviolent Resistance}} in {{West Papua}}},
  booktitle = {Civil {{Resistance}} and {{Conflict Transformation}}: {{Transitions}} from {{Armed}} to {{Nonviolent Struggle}}},
  author = {MacLeod, Jason},
  editor = {Dudouet, Véronique},
  date = {2015},
  pages = {45--76},
  publisher = {Routledge},
  location = {New York},
  abstract = {Published in: Dudouet, Véronique (Editor) (2015), Civil Resistance and Conflict Transformation: Transitions from armed to nonviolent struggle, New York: Routledge. West Papua is the site of one of the Pacific region's longest running anti-occupation and secessionist struggles. The nascent Melanesian state, or confederacy of indigenous nations, 1 is nestled on the western edge of the Pacific Rim. It is one half of the island of New Guinea, adjacent to the independent state of Papua New Guinea. West Papua has been occupied by the Indonesian military since May 1, 1963. Formerly named Irian Jaya by the Indonesian government, liberation minded Papuans call their country West Papua or Tanah Papua (the Land of Papua). West Papua straddles the two furthermost eastern provinces of Indonesia, Papua Barat in the west and Papua in the east. Since the early 1950s the Papuan freedom movement has waxed and waned, primarily influenced by political opportunities to mobilise, the strategic capacity of the movement to organise and the degree and extent of state repression. A major watershed moment was the Indonesia-wide pro-democracy movement. The unarmed student-led insurrection succeeded in overthrowing the former Indonesian dictator Suharto in May 1998. This created a political opening in West Papua, accelerating the transition away from armed struggle and towards nonviolent resistance. In West Papua this shift has been geographic and generational. From 1965 to 1998 the core of resistance to Indonesian rule was waged by poorly armed and numerically small numbers of Papuans operating in a network of decentralised guerrilla groups based in the rugged mountains and dense jungles of the interior. The post-1998 generation of nonviolent challengers in West Papua is younger and predominantly urban based. While they sympathise with the goals of the armed struggle, and in many cases have connections with the guerrillas through clan and kinship relations or via political affiliations, they are not personally involved in violent resistance. But first a caveat; when I write about the West Papuan freedom movement's transition from violent to nonviolent resistance, I do not mean to suggest that this transition has been linear or straightforward. The transition has been complex and has occurred in uneven and inconsistent spurts. At some times and in some places the movement even appears to be transitioning back to violent resistance. And yet, when one takes a longer view, looking at the transition from 1963 to the present (January 2014), one can confidently report that Papuans are much more actively engaged in nonviolent rather than violent resistance to Indonesian rule and that this engagement is increasing over time. From the late 1960s through to the early 1990s the independence struggle was represented by a decentralised network of poorly armed but committed guerrillas. The overriding image from this time was of a semi-naked muscular Papuan man wearing a headdress of cassowary feathers, a single bolt action World War Two rifle slung over his shoulder, standing against a backdrop of mountains and forests, partially obscured by a swirling mass of clouds. 2 These fighters, many of whom had spent decades in the jungle, symbolised and embodied West Papuan resistance to Indonesian rule. They were the ones 2 interviewed by the few international journalists willing to risk documenting the struggle and it was the guerrilla's perspectives that shaped the bigger story of how Papuans were resisting the Indonesian state (Bob 2005). A different story, one of nonviolent Papuan resistance to successive outside incursions since the 1800s, remained a concealed feature of a conflict that rarely moved beyond the murky margins of the international community's consciousness (MacLeod 2013). The armed struggle continued after the fall of Suharto and the image of a semi-naked muscular Papuan man carrying a rifle and bow and arrows still resonates with diverse audiences, inside and outside the country. But, the story of West Papuan resistance has become richer. It does not solely revolve around the actions (or inaction) of the guerrilla groups. The ideology, strategy and tactics of violent resistance are being displaced by other theories of change that favour civil resistance, diplomacy, civilian based media activism and transnational advocacy. The transition has not come about as a result of non-state armed actors in the mountains or jungles deciding en mass to pursue a new strategy. Instead, a new generation of more youthful actors in the cities and towns has emerged. 3 Small groups of fighters remain active in the mountains and villages of the interior 4 where 80\% of the indigenous population still lives, but the prominence and influence of the armed struggle has been overtaken by a new hegemonic force, even as this polycentric nonviolent movement continues to acknowledge and appreciate the ongoing contribution of the armed struggle. This chapter seeks to sketch that complex story, a transition that pivots more on the emergence of a new set of actors in the urban areas and less on the transformation of methods employed by armed guerrillas in the forests and highlands. The discussion is organised into four parts. Section one analyses Papuan resistance, the historical background, goals and composition of the movement as well as the root causes of the conflict. Section two considers the ways Papuans resist the Indonesian state. It includes three sub-sections: antecedents to resistance and repertoires of collective action; Papuan understandings of resistance; and the ways the Indonesian government has attempted to quell dissent. Section three moves into a deeper examination of the nature of the transition from armed to unarmed struggle. This section begins with the dynamics of the broader Papuan movement for freedom, the primary unit of analysis of the chapter. The reader's gaze is then focused on a second set of complex, and at times contradictory, dynamics exhibited by various groups that make up the armed struggle. Section four explores the mechanisms that underpin the transition from armed to unarmed resistance. The research is based on nine years of ethnographic fieldwork, action research designed to strengthen the strategic capacity of the movement, and a detailed analysis of primary and secondary documents in both English and Indonesian languages undertaken during doctoral research. 5},
  chapter = {3},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/GJ7NADHQ/MacLeod - 2015 - From the Mountains and Jungles to the Villages and Streets Transitions from Violent to Nonviolent R.pdf}
}

@article{Manekin2022,
  title = {Effective for {{Whom}}? {{Ethnic Identity}} and {{Nonviolent Resistance}}},
  shorttitle = {Effective for {{Whom}}?},
  author = {Manekin, Devorah and Mitts, Tamar},
  date = {2022-02},
  journaltitle = {American Political Science Review},
  volume = {116},
  number = {1},
  pages = {161--180},
  publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
  issn = {0003-0554, 1537-5943},
  doi = {10.1017/S0003055421000940},
  url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/journals/american-political-science-review/article/effective-for-whom-ethnic-identity-and-nonviolent-resistance/D78EE1F9EE3B41D6F1500311F17B8EA6},
  urldate = {2023-03-28},
  abstract = {A growing literature finds that nonviolence is more successful than violence in effecting political change. We suggest that a focus on this association is incomplete, because it obscures the crucial influence of ethnic identity on campaign outcomes. We argue that because of prevalent negative stereotypes associating minority ethnic groups with violence, such groups are perceived as more violent even when resisting nonviolently, increasing support for their repression and ultimately hampering campaign success. We show that, cross-nationally, the effect of nonviolence on outcomes is significantly moderated by ethnicity, with nonviolence increasing success only for dominant groups. We then test our argument using two experiments in the United States and Israel. Study 1 finds that nonviolent resistance by ethnic minorities is perceived as more violent and requiring more policing than identical resistance by majorities. Study 2 replicates and extends the results, leveraging the wave of racial justice protests across the US in June 2020 to find that white participants are perceived as less violent than Black participants when protesting for the same goals. These findings highlight the importance of ethnic identity in shaping campaign perceptions and outcomes, underscoring the obstacles that widespread biases pose to nonviolent mobilization.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/9ZAZJKUV/Manekin and Mitts - 2022 - Effective for Whom Ethnic Identity and Nonviolent.pdf}
}

@article{Manekin2024,
  title = {The Politics of Allyship: {{Multiethnic}} Coalitions and Mass Attitudes toward Protest},
  author = {Manekin, Devorah and Mitts, Tamar and Zeira, Yaël},
  date = {2024},
  journaltitle = {Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences},
  volume = {121},
  number = {19},
  pages = {e2314653121},
  url = {https://www.pnas.org/doi/10.1073/pnas.2314653121},
  urldate = {2024-07-17},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/5HC9VJ5P/The politics of allyship Multiethnic coalitions and mass attitudes toward protest  PNAS.pdf;/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/4RKQXFYU/pnas.html}
}

@book{Martin2007,
  title = {Justice Ignited: The Dynamics of Backfire},
  shorttitle = {Justice Ignited},
  author = {Martin, Brian},
  date = {2007},
  publisher = {Rowman \& Littlefield},
  location = {Lanham, MD},
  url = {http://books.google.com/books?id=zGh0uddlNmkC},
  abstract = {Attacks can backfire on attackerssometimes spectacularly. Examples include the beating of Rodney King by Los Angeles police in 1991, the surveillance of Ralph Nader in 1965, and the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Attackers often inhibit adverse reactions by covering up the attack, devaluing the target, and using other methods. Through numerous detailed case studies, Justice Ignited reveals the most promising tactics that can make unfair attacks backfire.},
  isbn = {978-0-7425-4086-6},
  langid = {english},
  mendeley-tags = {Law / Jurisprudence,Retribution,Social Science / General,Social Science / Sociology / General,Social Science / Violence in Society,Social justice},
  pagetotal = {248},
  keywords = {Law / Jurisprudence,Retribution,Social justice,Social Science / General,Social Science / Sociology / General,Social Science / Violence in Society}
}

@article{Mason1996,
  title = {How {{Civil Wars End}}: {{A Rational Choice Approach}}},
  author = {Mason, T. David and Fett, Patrick J.},
  date = {1996},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  volume = {40},
  number = {4},
  pages = {546--568},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/JZPQ845P/0022002796040004002.pdf}
}

@article{McLauchlin2010,
  title = {Loyalty {{Strategies}} and {{Military Defection}} in {{Rebellion}}},
  author = {McLauchlin, Theodore},
  date = {2010-03},
  journaltitle = {Comparative Politics},
  volume = {42},
  number = {3},
  pages = {333--350},
  doi = {10.5129/001041510X12911363509792},
  url = {http://openurl.ingenta.com/content/xref?genre=article{&}issn=0010-4159{&}volume=42{&}issue=3{&}spage=333}
}

@article{McLauchlin2017,
  title = {The {{Loyalty Trap}}: {{Regime Ethnic Exclusion}}, {{Commitment Problems}}, and {{Civil War Duration}} in {{Syria}} and {{Beyond}}},
  author = {McLauchlin, Theodore},
  date = {2018},
  journaltitle = {Security Studies},
  volume = {27},
  number = {2},
  pages = {296--317},
  doi = {10.1080/09636412.2017.1386938},
  url = {http://www.tandfonline.com/action/journalInformation?journalCode=fsst20},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/VA8WHWPE/McLauchlin - 2017 - The Loyalty Trap Regime Ethnic Exclusion, Commitm.pdf}
}

@article{Pinckney2020,
  title = {Curving the Resource Curse: {{Negative}} Effects of Oil and Gas Revenue on Nonviolent Resistance Campaign Onset},
  shorttitle = {Curving the Resource Curse},
  author = {Pinckney, Jonathan},
  date = {2020-04},
  journaltitle = {Research \& Politics},
  shortjournal = {Research \& Politics},
  volume = {7},
  number = {2},
  pages = {205316802093689},
  issn = {2053-1680, 2053-1680},
  doi = {10.1177/2053168020936890},
  url = {http://journals.sagepub.com/doi/10.1177/2053168020936890},
  urldate = {2021-05-26},
  abstract = {There is growing consensus that large oil and gas revenues in autocracies have multiple pernicious effects, from decreasing democratization to increasing armed conflict: the so-called “resource curse.” Yet we know little about the effects of oil and gas revenue on the onset of major nonviolent dissent. The logic of the resource curse would lead us to expect oil and gas revenue to significantly decrease the likelihood of nonviolent resistance, as resource wealth enables autocracies to increase repressive capacity and co-opt potential challengers. But this relationship has yet to be comprehensively tested. I show that such an effect obtains, but is more complex than previously theorized. Low levels of oil and gas revenue increase the likelihood of nonviolent resistance onset, while high levels decrease it. Despite popular assumptions and the general logic of the resource curse, oil only appears to drown out major nonviolent dissent at relatively high levels.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/LCGI2TC2/Pinckney - 2020 - Curving the resource curse Negative effects of oi.pdf}
}

@article{Pischedda2020,
  title = {Ethnic {{Conflict}} and the {{Limits}} of {{Nonviolent Resistance}}},
  author = {Pischedda, Costantino},
  date = {2020},
  journaltitle = {Security Studies},
  volume = {29},
  number = {2},
  pages = {362--391},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/V447N4CK/Pischedda - Ethnic Conflict and the Limits of Nonviolent Resis.pdf}
}

@article{Stephan2008,
  title = {Why {{Civil Resistance Works}}: {{The Strategic Logic}} of {{Nonviolent Conflict}}},
  author = {Stephan, Maria J. and Chenoweth, Erica},
  date = {2008},
  journaltitle = {International Security},
  volume = {33},
  number = {1},
  pages = {7--44},
  publisher = {MIT Press},
  url = {http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/isec.2008.33.1.7}
}

@article{Svensson2011,
  title = {Community and Consent: {{Unarmed}} Insurrections in Non-Democracies},
  author = {Svensson, Isak and Lindgren, Mathilda},
  date = {2011},
  journaltitle = {European Journal of International Relations},
  volume = {17},
  number = {1},
  pages = {97--120},
  url = {http://ejt.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/1354066109350049 papers3://publication/doi/10.1177/1354066109350049},
  abstract = {SAGE Publications},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/SCWMDU4I/Svensson and Lindgren - 2011 - Community and consent Unarmed insurrections in no.pdf}
}

@article{Thurber2018,
  title = {Ethnic {{Barriers}} to {{Civil Resistance}}},
  author = {Thurber, Ches},
  date = {2018},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Global Security Studies},
  volume = {3},
  number = {3},
  pages = {255--270},
  issn = {2057-3170, 2057-3189},
  doi = {10.1093/jogss/ogy018},
  url = {https://academic.oup.com/jogss/advance-article/doi/10.1093/jogss/ogy018/5051127},
  urldate = {2018-07-13},
  abstract = {While ethnic cleavages have featured prominently in our understanding of civil wars, attention to ethnic and social structures has been surprisingly absent from the recent wave of research on civil resistance. Yet these structures likely have an important impact on when and where we see nonviolent campaigns occur. This article argues that the strategic logic of civil resistance presents high barriers to entry for politically excluded ethnic minorities. Constraints on these groups’ ability to activate mechanisms central to an exclusively nonviolent strategy either prevent them from getting a civil resistance campaign off the ground or deter them from ever attempting to do so. Using original data on the ethnic composition of nonviolent and violent campaigns, I show that nonviolent campaigns are less likely than violent ones to include participants from politically disadvantaged ethnic groups and also less likely to feature ethnic political claims. Furthermore, I find that political exclusion and small group size reduce the likelihood that members of an ethnic group will initiate a campaign of civil resistance.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/ARUKCEIZ/Thurber-2018-Ethnic Barriers to Civil Resistance.pdf}
}

@book{Thurber2021,
  title = {Between {{Mao}} and {{Gandhi}}: {{The Social Roots}} of {{Civil Resistance}}},
  author = {Thurber, Ches},
  date = {2021},
  publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
  location = {Cambridge}
}

@article{Turner2023,
  title = {A Win or a Flop? {{Measuring}} Mass Protest Successfulness in Authoritarian Settings},
  shorttitle = {A Win or a Flop?},
  author = {Turner, Kimberly},
  date = {2023-01-01},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Peace Research},
  volume = {60},
  number = {1},
  pages = {107--123},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications Ltd},
  issn = {0022-3433},
  doi = {10.1177/00223433221140434},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/00223433221140434},
  urldate = {2023-03-27},
  abstract = {Previously rare events, mass protest movements have become popular vehicles for those seeking political, economic, and social change. How do we evaluate movement success? Most studies addressing movement outcomes are grounded in the goal attainment approach, where movement success is dependent upon fulfilling one?s stated demands. The models derived from this approach heavily rely on visibility and transparency in the policymaking process. These offer limited analytical utility for scholars studying movements in authoritarian states, where policymaking is shrouded and media is state-controlled. Evaluating movements solely on their fulfillment of mission goals is highly problematic, as movements produce more outcomes than their intended goals. Movements also produce unintended benefits: concessions unrelated to the movement?s mission. These include negative consequences, or societal costs. Since movements produce both positive and negative unintended outcomes, any evaluation of a movement should also incorporate the costs associated with new gains. I argue a cost?benefit approach improves scholarly conceptualization and measurement of protest success. I conceptualize protest success as multidimensional and comprised of protest gains and societal costs. I develop a 21-point scale of protest success using Mokken Scale Analysis. AISP diagnostics indicate gains and costs comprise separate subscales, which are collapsed to produce total sum scores. I score 34 nonviolent movements in authoritarian states between 2002 and 2013 on an additive scale. Protests in authoritarian settings attain considerable accomplishments; however, those gains come with significant cost. Most total success scores are negative, indicating considerable backlash is common during and immediately after the demobilization of movements in authoritarian states. Success scores improve upon the canonical binary measure by: (1) offering improved discrimination between movements, (2) identifying cases of regime ?ignoring?, and (3) pinpointing misclassified cases. By incorporating negative consequences into our evaluations, we advance our understanding why movements deemed successful by scholars are disappointments to their home publics.},
  langid = {english}
}

@article{Vogt2015,
  title = {Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conflict: {{The}} Ethnic Power Relations Data Set Family},
  author = {Vogt, Manuel and Bormann, Nils-Christian and R�egger, Seraina and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Hunziker, Philipp and Girardin, Luc},
  date = {2015-10},
  journaltitle = {Journal of Conflict Resolution},
  volume = {59},
  number = {7},
  pages = {1327--1342},
  owner = {lorenzo},
  keywords = {data},
  timestamp = {2015.07.30},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/H7MJKCXB/Vogt et al. - 2015 - Integrating Data on Ethnicity, Geography, and Conf.pdf}
}

@article{Wimmer2009,
  title = {Ethnic {{Politics}} and {{Armed Conflict}}: {{A Configurational Analysis}} of a {{New Global Data Set}}},
  author = {Wimmer, Andreas and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Min, Brian},
  date = {2009},
  journaltitle = {American Sociological Review},
  volume = {74},
  number = {2},
  pages = {316--337},
  issn = {0003-1224},
  doi = {10.1177/000312240907400208},
  url = {http://asr.sagepub.com/cgi/doi/10.1177/000312240907400208},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/WWEUJXW7/Wimmer et al. - 2009 - Ethnic Politics and Armed Conflict A Configuratio.pdf}
}

@article{Wucherpfennig2011,
  title = {Politically {{Relevant Ethnic Groups}} across {{Space}} and {{Time}}: {{Introducing}} the {{GeoEPR Dataset1}}},
  shorttitle = {Politically {{Relevant Ethnic Groups}} across {{Space}} and {{Time}}},
  author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Weidmann, Nils B. and Girardin, Luc and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Wimmer, Andreas},
  date = {2011-11-01},
  journaltitle = {Conflict Management and Peace Science},
  volume = {28},
  number = {5},
  pages = {423--437},
  publisher = {SAGE Publications Ltd},
  issn = {0738-8942},
  doi = {10.1177/0738894210393217},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.1177/0738894210393217},
  urldate = {2025-05-15},
  abstract = {This article introduces GeoEPR, a geocoded version of the Ethnic Power Relations (EPR) dataset that charts politically relevant ethnic groups across space and time. We describe the dataset in detail, discuss its advantages and limitations, and use it in a replication of Cederman, Wimmer and Min’s (2010) study on the causes of ethno-nationalist conflict. We show that territorial conflicts are more likely to involve groups that settle far away from the capital city and close to the border, while these spatial variables have no effect for governmental conflicts.},
  langid = {english},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/YDFZSH83/Wucherpfennig et al. - 2011 - Politically Relevant Ethnic Groups across Space and Time Introducing the GeoEPR Dataset1.pdf}
}

@article{Wucherpfennig2012,
  title = {Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil War},
  author = {Wucherpfennig, Julian and Metternich, Nils W. and Cederman, Lars-Erik and Gleditsch, Kristian Skrede},
  date = {2012-01},
  journaltitle = {World Politics},
  volume = {64},
  number = {1},
  pages = {79--115},
  doi = {10.1017/S004388711100030X},
  url = {http://journals.cambridge.org/action/displayAbstract?aid=8464981},
  owner = {Paul},
  timestamp = {2016.08.17},
  file = {/Users/chesthurber/Zotero/storage/3VGS6ZJZ/Wucherpfennig et al. - 2012 - Ethnicity, the State, and the Duration of Civil Wa.pdf}
}

@article{Zunes1999b,
  title = {The {{Role}} of {{Non-violent Action}} in the {{Downfall}} of {{Apartheid}}},
  author = {Zunes, Stephen},
  date = {1999},
  journaltitle = {The Journal of Modern African Studies},
  volume = {37},
  number = {1},
  pages = {137--169},
  url = {https://www.cambridge.org/core/services/aop-cambridge-core/content/view/2A1AC6C4C02CB1A44AFA87CDBBC757D1/S0022278X99002967a.pdf/div-class-title-the-role-of-non-violent-action-in-the-downfall-of-apartheid-div.pdf},
  abstract = {Against enormous odds, non-violent action proved to be a major factor in the downfall of apartheid in South Africa, and the establishment of a democratic black majority government, despite predictions that the transition could come only through a violent revolutionary cataclysm. This was largely the result of conditions working against a successful armed overthrow of the system, combined with the ability of the anti-apartheid opposition to take advantage of the system's economic dependence on a cooperative black labour force. This article traces the history of nonviolent resistance to apartheid, its initial failures, and the return in the s to a largely non-violent strategy which, together with international sanctions, forced the government to negotiate a peaceful transfer to majority rule.  Against enormous odds, non-violent action proved to be a major factor in the downfall of apartheid and the establishment of a democratic black majority government. This came despite the fact that movements working for fundamental change in South Africa faced unprecedented obstacles. Never had such a powerful and highly industrialised state been overthrown from within. Opponents of apartheid faced a complex web of regulations which produced a rigid stratification system which severely limited dissent by the oppressed majority. Apartheid South Africa defied most traditional political analyses, due to its unique social, political, economic and strategic position. It practised one of history's most elaborate systems of internal colonialism, with a white minority composed of less than one-fifth of the population in absolute control. The ruling party was led by racialists who also possessed an unusual level of political sophistication. They controlled some of the world's richest mineral deposits, including one-third of the earth's known gold reserves. A modern military machine stood ready in an area which lacked any other large conventional force. Its internal}
}
